The global economy is a complex and dynamic system that is influenced by a variety of factors. Here are five charts that provide a snapshot of the current state of the global economy:
1. Global Growth: According to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report, the global economy is expected to grow at a rate of 2.4% in 2024, which is the slowest half-decade of GDP growth in 30 years. The report also highlights that output in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is set to follow a notably lower path than it did before the pandemic, with sluggish per capita growth, especially in fragile countries. The recent conflict in the Middle East has heightened geopolitical risks, and an escalation could weigh on global growth.
2. Growth by Economy and EMDE Credit Rating: The growth in advanced economies as a whole and in China is projected to slow in 2024 to well below its 2010-19 average pace. In contrast, aggregate growth is set to improve slightly in EMDEs with stronger credit ratings, remaining close to pre-pandemic average rates. Although overall growth is also expected to firm somewhat from its 2023 low in EMDEs with weaker credit ratings, the outlook for many of them remains precarious, given elevated debt and financing costs, as well as idiosyncratic headwinds such as conflict.
3. Global Growth Percent: The global recovery from the 2020 pandemic recession remains subdued, with 2020-24 expected to mark the weakest start to a decade for global growth since the early 1990sanother period characterized by geopolitical strains and a global recession.
4. Inflation: Inflation has been a major concern for the global economy in recent years. According to the World Bank, inflation is expected to remain elevated in 2024, reflecting the lagged and ongoing effects of tight monetary policies to rein in decades-high inflation, restrictive credit conditions, and anemic global trade and investment.
5. Trade and Investment: Global trade and investment have been sluggish in recent years. The World Bank’s report highlights that anemic global trade and investment are among the factors contributing to the slowest half-decade of GDP growth in 30 years.